Power Transition and Structural Competition: Analyzing the New Architecture of US-China Relations, 2000–2025

Abstract

This article discusses how relations between the United States and China have changed in the 21st century, based on the multi-domain competition that has emerged as the new axis of global politics. The urgency of the study stems from the need to understand how a bilateral relationship based on economic interdependence and regulated interaction is transforming into one of structural competition across trade, technology, military posture, and normative rules. A major gap exists in the literature: while considerable scholarship has addressed discrete dimensions of the rivalry, few studies have integrated economic, technological, security, and domestic political dimensions into a coherent analytical framework. Employing a mixed-methods approach that combines a structured expert survey (n=40), qualitative thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews, and documentary analysis of authoritative policy texts (2000-2025), this article traces expert perceptions of the US-China rivalry. It situates them within theoretical perspectives on power transition, geo-economic statecraft, liberal institutionalism, and constructivism. Results show a staggering expert consensus about the international system (85%) moving from unipolarity to multipolarity; that the Belt and Road Initiative (92.5%), economic diplomacy (82.5%) and military modernization (75%) are China's leading tools of strategic influence; and economic and technological competition as the most important dimension of competition (mean = 4.50). The study concludes that the US-China relationship has entered a phase of systemic structural competition that is especially likely to pose acute risks to global stability, particularly through flashpoints in the Taiwan Strait and in technology decoupling. Policy implications include the institutionalization of crisis-communication mechanisms, a multilateral technology-governance compact, and the maintenance of functional cooperation zones in climate and global health governance.