Climate Change and Water Insecurity in Pakistan: Implications for Federal Governance and Internal Stability

Abstract

Climate change has now become one of the most significant non-traditional security threats of the twenty-first century and its impacts are highly disproportionately placed in the developing countries that are environmentally vulnerable like Pakistan. Pakistan is located in the Indus Basin and it depends on one of the most developed irrigation systems in the world, which is exposed to some of the most devastating water crisis due to the disappearance of the glaciers and the changing monsoon patterns, frequent droughts and disastrous flooding. These ecological incursions are not determined in a vacuum but they overlap a federal form of governance that has always been historically contentious, institutionally fractured and constitutionally unclear in regard to water resource management. This paper explores the connection between water insecurity in Pakistan due to climate change and the stability of federal governance, based on the argument that climate change is a threat multiplier that exacerbates the underlying structural vulnerabilities in interprovincial water governance and endangers national unity. Based on the environmental security theory and the academic literature of federalism, the paper uses qualitative research methods using thematic analysis of the provisions in the constitution, policy documents, institutional mechanisms and secondary academic sources. The results show that the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord and the Council of Common Interests are no longer effective as adaptive governance tools with increasing climate stress. The interprovincial water distribution conflicts, especially between the Punjab and Sindh, have become more pronounced and the food insecurity in rural areas and migration as a result of climate have extended the social aspects of the crisis. The paper suggests institutional reforms that are climate adaptive, greater federal collaboration, open governance of water information, and mainstreaming of water security in national security plans.