Climate Change and Farmland Conversion: Dual Threats to Agricultural Productivity in KPK

Abstract

The conversion of agricultural land into non-agricultural uses has become a growing global concern, particularly in developing countries where it threatens food security and rural livelihoods. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Pakistan, rapid urbanization, population expansion, and increasing climate variability—such as irregular rainfall and rising temperatures—have accelerated the loss of cultivable land, posing serious risks to agricultural sustainability and productivity. This study aims to investigate the extent, determinants, and consequences of farmland conversion in KP from 2004 to 2024, while also examining how climate-related stressors interact with land-use changes to affect agricultural productivity and food security. A quantitative cross-sectional survey was conducted among 356 farming households across six randomly selected villages in the districts of Mardan, Charsadda, and Nowshera. Data were collected through structured questionnaires and analyzed using SPSS (version 25). Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression models were employed to identify key drivers of farmland conversion and environmental stress, with statistical significance set at p < 0.05. The findings reveal that respondents had a mean age of 45.5 years, with generally low educational attainment and a predominance of large, joint family systems. Most households had only one or two earning members, reflecting high dependency ratios and limited investment capacity in agriculture. Although farmers owned small to medium-sized landholdings (average 11 acres), multiple pressures—including rising land prices, insecure land tenure, limited market access, and lack of alternative income opportunities—encouraged land conversion. Climate factors such as erratic rainfall patterns and temperature fluctuations further reduced crop productivity, intensifying the adverse effects of land conversion. The study concludes that climate change and farmland conversion jointly constitute major threats to agricultural productivity in KP. Their combined effects not only reduce available arable land but also undermine farming efficiency and long-term food security. Addressing these dual challenges requires integrated policy interventions focusing on sustainable land management, climate-resilient agriculture, and balanced urban development. Economic motives were identified as a significant driver of farmland conversion, reported by the majority of respondents (79.2%). Logistic regression analysis indicated that the conversion of agricultural land in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is primarily influenced by social attitudes, government incentives, broader social factors, and access to credit.