From Threshold to Conflict: A Critical Review of the US - Israel War on Iran 2026 in the Discourse of International Order

Abstract

On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched the most significant joint military operation in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, opening a sustained campaign against Iran's nuclear programme, ballistic missile infrastructure, and   in an unprecedented escalation the regime's leadership itself. On the first day of strikes, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was assassinated. Iran in turn retaliated with direct missile and drone strikes against Israel, US military bases in the Gulf and closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing an oil crisis that drove Brent crude above USD 126 per barrel and disrupted about one-fifth of global oil trade. A two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, was observed after five weeks of heavy fighting, but efforts to reach a permanent agreement have yet to yield any results. This article offers the first full, theoretically informed academic study of this conflict. This research uses three complementary international relations theories: Classical Realism (Morgenthau), Offensive Realism (Mearsheimer), and Copenhagen School Securitization Theory (Buzan and Wæver) and is informed by primary sources such as official statements, IAEA reports, UN documents, think-tank analyses and real-time reporting from credible international outlets to cover the entire spectrum of events from the June 2025 Twelve-Day War to the 2026 ceasefire and its fragile aftermath. Five original research findings are presented, eight structured policy recommendations are offered and four future scenario trajectories are analysed. The article concludes that the 2026 war marks a historical turning point, which has permanently reshaped the security structure of the Middle East, global energy governance, and the rules of the international game, with repercussions that will shape international relations for years to come. This research aims to provide for scholars, policy makers, diplomatic practitioners and involved citizens.